Romania has the highest exposure to loans in euros of all the member states of the European Union, which have yet to adopt the single currency, with a total volume of 24 billion euros, according to a report of the European Central Bank. Local analysts, however, say that the situation is under control, although there are certain risks.
The volume of loans in euros in Romania stood at
24.6 billion euros in December last year, while their share in the total loans taken out by individuals and economic operators reached 49%.
The volume of loans in euros is thus double the volume in Poland and almost three times higher than the one in the Czech Republic. In terms of share of the loans in euros in total loans, Romania is only behind Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria, countries where the foreign currency risk is non-existent, because their currencies are tied to the euro at a fixed rate.
Under the circumstances, how big is the risk that consumers, economic operators and banks subjected themselves to by taking out and granting loans in foreign currency without heeding the repeated warnings of the central bank about the credits in a currency other than the one in which the debtors get their incomes/revenues?
Analysts believe risks are not as high as they seem at first sight and can be controlled. "I don't know how relevant the absolute figures are, I believe we should rather look at the share of the loans in the Gross Domestic Product," says Ionut Dumitru, chief economist of Raiffeisen Bank. "It is only natural that Romania, whose GDP is higher than Bulgaria or Hungary's, should have a large volume of loans," he added.
Financial analyst Dragos Cabat in turn does not believe the volume of loans in euros is such a big problem for the banking system and for the individual customers, either.
"Loans in euros are not such a big problem for the time being. The problem is a short-term one, given that we will join the exchange rate mechanism (ERM II) in just a few years," Cabat believes. ERM II is the antechamber to the euro; each country that intends to adopt the single currency is required to spend at least two years in this mechanism, which entails ensuring exchange rate stability.
Although they believe that loans in foreign currency are under control, analysts do not deny that there is a certain risk.
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