Bad news coming from Romania - that the IMF arrangement wasderailed again and the increased political risk - has affected theentire region, with foreign players betting massively on thedepreciation of the Hungarian forint in the context wherespeculations against the RON are limited by the very low liquidityof the Bucharest market, comments Lars Christensen, chief analystat Danske Bank.
"The sharp rise in risk aversion on the back of news out ofRomania had an effect on Central and Eastern European markets withthe most vulnerable currency, the Hungarian forint, selling off themost. This was natural, given that the forint is probably the bestproxy trade for the RON because the RON is very illiquid," LarsChristensen says.
The Hungarian forint lost 1.7% against mid last week, with thePolish zloty recording a similar depreciation. Despite low volumes,which keep investors away from the Bucharest market, the RON lost amore significant 2.7%. The European Central Bank, which gathersdata from the forex market independently, though later than the NBR(National Bank of Romania), yesterday calculated a 4.3405 RON/euroexchange rate, 5.45 bani (1RON - 100 bani) or 1.2% more than lastFriday. The NBR calculated a 4.3257 RON/euro exchange rate, a newall-time high.
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