Most of the 50 analysts and businesspeople Ziarul Financiarinterviewed on the progression of the economy in 2010 believe therewill be economic growth, but there are also pessimists, seeing adecline by even as much as 5% as possible. ZF tried to determinehow 2010 is seen by Romanian economy players in the context wherethe economy is now undergoing the most uncertain period andpolitical instability is only worsening the situation.
Economic revival will depend both on the performance of eurozone economies, and on the moves the Government will make. And therisk of a prolonged recession is mainly related to politicalfactors and the fiscal policy.
An ambitious fiscal consolidation programme, further monetarypolicy relaxation steps, political stability and the implementationof economic recovery steps are some of the suggestions personsquestioned by ZF made to authorities to help the economy.
Businesspersons' concerns are related to a rising unemploymentrate, the dwindling purchasing power of the population, declininginvestments and consumption and the skyrocketing non-performingloans.
Romania has in recent years seen its economy boom mainly as aresult of the debt-backed rising consumption and the ballooningcurrent account deficit was the price it paid for this.
While economic growth should be based to a great extent oninvestments and net exports, in reality GDP increase will mostcertainly be further led by consumption, supported through foreignloans.
Such economic growth is no longer a viable solution, though, asforeign investors are ever more reluctant to finance countriesliving on debt.
While the foreign deficit has adjusted this year, next year'smain problem is high budget deficit. Financing this deficit entailshigh costs, eroding the potential of earmarking money forinvestments. And, with the IMF agreement frozen and with nocredibility, it will be ever more difficult to finance.
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