Romanian exports lived up to all the worst expectations in January: with a measly 1.3% growth in euros as compared to January 2003, revenues dropped below last year's monthly average.
Long gone are the annual growth paces of even 50% (posted one year ago), as three of the five main categories of goods exported by Romania dropped as much as 17.3 percent in January.
Under the circumstances, Romania will not be able to rely on exports to keep the trade balance steady and, implicitly, the foreign payment balance, whose deficit accounts for the bulk of the trade deficit. Even more so since imports are soaring, given the deregulation of Romania's foreign trade and the signing of new free trade agreements.
Thus, imports surged 8.6% in January 2004 as compared to the year-ago period, up to 1.53 billion euros. At the same time, exports only increased 1.3 percent, which translates into revenues worth 1.21 billion euros. Consequently, the trade deficit for the first month of 2004 revolves around 320 million euros, below last year's average, but 50% higher than the level posted in the year-ago period.
Compared to December 2003, exports even dropped two percent, continuing for the third month in a row the declining trend that started immediately after the 1.42 billion-euro peak attained last October.
For 2004, exports are credited with 6% growth by the authorities, which would entail maintaining the same growth pace posted in 2003 - 6.4%.
Late last year, analysts agreed that Romania could no longer force the growth of sales to foreign markets, as the current structure of goods that exports are based on has not changed for years and is dominated by products with low added value.
Moreover, exporters have to deal with the shock of paying a double profit tax this year (although this tax had already doubled in 2003 as well), up to the standard quota of 25%. Furthermore, the imports of technology made in the past few years have yet to show some results, such as the production of more sophisticated goods aimed at export.
In their turn, the multinationals operating in Romania, which could access retail markets more easily than the Romanian companies, are keeping their position as net importers.
It is worth noting that, in January 2004, the value of imported mechanical plant and electrical devices and equipment went up 15.9 percent, whereas the imports of metallurgic products logged a 34.3% surge.
As for exports, the deliveries of clothing items went up 10.8 percent, with a 15.7 percent growth posted by the exports of mechanical plant and electrical devices and equipment On the other hand, the exports of metallurgic products dropped 11.7 percent, with a 17.3% minus posted by the deliveries of mineral products to the international markets.
razvan.voican@zf.ro ; sorin.pislaru@zf.ro
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