Moving from an anti-crisis programme based on "how to use" the Gross Domestic Product to a programme on "how to create" GDP by promoting the Romanian industrial manufacturing sectors is the basic premise for keeping the economic decline at no more than 4%.
"The programme, which includes 32 Government measures, to which the 24 ideas promoted by one ruling party were added, all have more to do with "how to use" the GDP. GDP creation should be a primary concern. Seven economic sectors in the manufacturing industry are primarily concerned," explains Cezar Mereuta, doctor in economics, and vice-president of the Romanian Centre for Economic Modelling.
He gives the example of Dacia, pointing to the importance of creating added value. If Dacia had preserved its first-quarter production level (of 1,085 cars per day), Mereuta estimates the economic decline would have amounted to 9% at the end of 2009, compared with the 6.2% decline currently expected.
Dacia's production recovered starting in April, due to the programme aimed at stimulating European automotive markets, which boosted demand for the cars included in the 10,000 euro-price segment. Currently, 80% of Dacia's production is exported, with its top export destinations being Germany and France. "This year's GDP decline of merely 6.2% is owed entirely to Dacia, which now only has to keep up the production pace. Ford needs to start operations this year, and the Government needs to create the necessary conditions for its suppliers, in line with the European legislation," says Mereuta. According to a study conducted by Mereuta, the metallurgic industry, the mineral processing industry, the paper industry, the chemical and the textile industry, as well as the consumer goods production sector are to blame for the GDP reduction, but they are also the sectors that can generate economic growth.
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