The rate of inflation will drop to around 9.5% at the end of December, but will go up again in the first three months of 2005, reaching a level of between 10% and 10.6% by the end of March, National Bank forecasts show. This means two digits will again be needed to measure inflation calculated as the variation on the same month of the previous year. NBR believes this "slippage" from the downward trend will be only "temporary". Who is to blame for the resumption in price increases? It will be the result of "the shock induced by the adjustments in energy prices in January and the pressures generated by the rise in petroleum prices," explain NBR experts in the inflation report for the first half of the year. According to the precautionary agreement concluded with the IMF this July, the ex-works gas price is to be increased from $60 per 1000 cubic metres to around $85 per 1000 cubic metres as of 1 January, 2005. Electricity and thermal power prices will also be adjusted at the same time. Other regulated prices and tariffs will continue to be adjusted periodically depending on the exchange rate and inflation. ZF
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