The Gross Domestic Product estimated for the first half of this year rose 6.6% in real terms compared with the same time in 2003, to 22.1bn euros, exceeding the Government's expectations by more than one percent.
The population's consumption was the definite driving force behind this spectacular growth, progressing by 9%, a level anticipated by the 8.8% record in the first quarter.
Total final consumption rose 8.8% in the first half of 2004 compared with the corresponding period of last year.
The consumption demand successfully induced growth of 8.6% in the added value in the constructions sector, while the similar figure in the services sector stood at 6.5%
Industry was visibly slower to progress, gaining 5.9% compared with the 6.6% in the first three months of 2004.
The contribution of these three sectors to the gross domestic product stood at nearly 84%.
Investments in the economy saw a spectacular leap - 10.4% growth. The investment rate calculated as a ratio of the gross capital formation and the gross added value across the economy amounted to 23.5% in the first half of 2004, compared to 22.3% in the first half of 2003.
"This growth is very good, because it is obvious the respective investments are directed towards sub-sectors that are going well and are in demand, instead of heading towards 'black holes'," financial analyst Aurelian Dochia comments.
"Final consumption was the driving force, which is not necessarily a bad thing. Under the circumstances, the lending growth pace conflicts with the economy's capacity to promptly react to the increase in demand, which leads to a domestic imbalance. The sectors that should be stimulated by lending, namely those that manufacture consumer goods, for instance, are still moving slowly," commented Mihai Bogza, NBR vice-governor.
He says that if seen from this standpoint, the lending growth was a victim of the restrictive measures taken by the central bank, precisely because the production of goods demanded by the loan applicants did not react promptly, therefore turning lending into a factor widening the foreign deficit.
"We must see exactly what segments of industry are developing and if they are in line with the consumption demand structure. The important thing here is not only the industrial growth rate but also the structural changes. A moderate industry development can be normal if we take a look at the developed countries, where services are the most important contributor to the GDP. Their growth shows that structural changes in the economy continued, despite hindrances and reform delays," Aurelian Dochia added.
The statistical data on the GDP trend in the first half was anticipated by the reports from companies that sell products in sectors such as consumer goods (largely imported), as well as vehicles (in this case, domestic production covers more than 60% of the market). The major retail networks, such as Metro and Carrefour, have witnessed sales growth in the first half of more than 30%. In some cases, sales even doubled, due to increases in the number of stores.
razvan.voican@zf.ro
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