Financial intermediation, expressed as the weight of non-governmental lending in the Gross Domestic Product, is supposed to reach 97.8% in 2025, according to NBR estimations.
Where did this forecast come from? It has been computed on the basis of an estimated real annual growth of 15.3% of the non-governmental lending over the next 20 years. Namely, a growth pace half the pace of about 30% anticipated in 2004.
And what would such an increase in the non-governmental lending account for from a value point of view? That would mean attaining an amount of over 208 billion euros in 2025, in the context where the value of the GDP projected for the respective year would reach a level of almost 213 billion euros.
Until we come to that far horizon, financial intermediation in Romania is likely to climb to 19% of GDP by the end of this year. The three percentage point rise as compared to year 2003 does not do too much to get the intermediation degree of the domestic market too close to the average of the 10 new members of the European Union, accounting for 33.5% of GDP at the level of last year. The laggards of the pack, which are easier to catch up with, are Lithuania, with 22.6% and Poland with 28%. Estonia, with 52.2%, Hungary-40.3% and Slovenia-40.1%, are at the top.
In the euro zone, however, lending granted by banks to firms and individuals comes to 97.8% of GDP, namely fivefold higher than in Romania.
In late September, non-governmental lending totalled 9.7 billion euros, weighing about 17.6% in a GDP estimated to stand at 55 billion euros by yearend.
razvan.voican@zf.ro
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