"The total assets of the Romanian banking system are expected to increase more than three times by 2011, whilst in Serbia assets will double," estimates Rainer Munz, head of research and development at Erste Bank.
Since 2006, the Romanian banking system has been the largest banking system in South Eastern Europe, with assets now forecast to approach 170 billion euros by 2011. Midway through last year, total assets in the Romanian banking system amounted to 190 billion RON (over 59 billion euros).
Romania's growth potential comes, in part, from the large number of people who are not clients of commercial banks yet.
Munz estimates only 8.4 million Romanians are bank customers, whilst 9.9 million individuals have yet to become involved with banks. Only the Ukrainian market has a higher potential in this respect, with 19 million prospective bank customers.
Munz also appreciates the current low share held in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by credits granted to the non-financial sector, and maintains that there is still high potential for growth on the Central and Eastern European markets. In Romania, these credits account for almost 30% of the GDP, compared with almost 40% in Poland and Slovakia, and around 15% in eurozone countries.
Although credits granted to the non-financial sector in Romania continued to register the fastest growth rate on regional markets in 2007, the overall figure against the number of inhabitants remains modest. According to Munz's estimates, at the end of 2007, loans per capita reached 1,800 euros, which places Romania in the same league as Serbia and Ukraine.
In Poland (one of the largest retail markets in the region) the average loan per capita stands at 3,100 euros, while in Austria the average stands at 46,000 euros.
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