Industrial output in absolute volume fell some 2% in February compared with the same month of last year, the first serious break in the upward trend of this index since 2000.
The National Statistics Institute (INS) did the unusual thing last Friday and released the industrial output statistics for two months instead of the previous month only as before, but calculations show February witnessed a decline.
According to INS, the output in the first two months of this year was 0.2% higher than in the corresponding period of 2002, both in terms of absolute volume and the number of working days.
Assuming the output volume in February was about the same as in January (the number of working days was the same in the two months - 20, due the Christmas holiday), a probable 2% decline stands out for February.
This is the first visible industrial output decline, which was, after all, foretold by the serious slowdown in January. Industrial output in the second half of 2002 registered 6% to 9% growth every month compared with the same month in the previous year. Such growth was actually a common occurrence all through 2000, 2001 and 2002.
If taking the annual trend into account, the more than 7% decline in industrial output throughout 1997-1999 was followed by a growth cycle, which proceeded at high speed at first, that is 8.2% in 2000 and 2001 and then slowed down - 6% in 2002. It is yet unclear whether the developments in February announce the end of this cycle or it is merely a temporary "fault." Industrial output is one of the main indicators of the development of the Romanian economy. Industry accounts for about 45% of the Gross Domestic Product.
sorin.pislaru@zf.ro
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
