The ROL/EUR exchange rate dropped 132 units yesterday, down to 40.612 ROL/EUR, mainly because of the big sales of euros by the banking customers that need bigger amounts in the domestic currency as the winter holidays are approaching.
However, dealers say this decline of the exchange rate is simply a matter of circumstance and, in the absence of an intervention from the central bank, the same trend is likely to continue today.
Yesterday's movements on the Bucharest market were not in sync with the international financial markets, where the single European currency climbed to a new all-time high against the dollar: 1.2477 US dollars for one euro.
The euro's drop on the Bucharest forex market yesterday was also "helped" by the National Bank which, unlike the previous years, chose to stand aside and let the exchange rate drop by itself, thus giving it room to go back up, also by itself.
Had the National Bank (NBR) bought foreign currency yesterday to keep the ROL/EUR exchange rate from sliding so far down, the foreign currency sales would have come to a natural end next week (when the need for ROL is going to be much smaller than it is these days) and the euro may have continued its climb on the international markets, so that the pressure upon the ROL would have forced the NBR to resort to foreign currency sales.
"What happened today on the forex market (the euro's 130 ROL drop, i.e.) is undoubtedly a matter of circumstance, triggered mainly by the sell orders of foreign currency, coming mostly from the clients that need more ROL these days to make payments to the budget and to pay the wages and the Christmas bonuses. The situation started at the end of last week and will most likely continue tomorrow (today, i.e.)," said Cristian Sporis, treasurer of Raiffeisen Bank Romania.
According to Sporis, this drop is obviously temporary, very similar to what happened in the past years on the forex market, with the only difference being that, back then, "the central bank stepped in and bought foreign currency."
"This conjectural decline of the EUR/ROL exchange rate was due, on the one hand, to big foreign currency sales by the clients, but also, I believe, to certain banks' appetite to speculate the significant time interval between the transactions and the actual money transfer (i.e. for the transactions closed today, the money will only be transferred early next week). In my opinion, this situation will continue tomorrow (today, i.e.), unless the central bank steps in and starts buying foreign currency and, also, unless the EUR/USD exchange rate posts significant variations," says Liviu Olaru, senior dealer with ABN Amro Bank.
The domestic currency has lost 16.3% to the single European currency since the beginning of the year, but gained 2.5% against the American dollar.
The euro's drop on the interbank market was quick to reach the foreign exchange offices, where the single European currency lost 50-80 ROL in only a few hours.
oana.nuta@zf.ro
Pentru alte știri, analize, articole și informații din business în timp real urmărește Ziarul Financiar pe WhatsApp Channels
