Romania will be unable to maintain its growth pace above 5% this year, albeit the Economic EU Pre-accession Programme had anticipated 5.2% growth that should be attained in the next three years on the average, as well. The new governmental forecast for 2003 shows a GDP growth rate of 4.8%, due to the impact of the prolonged drought, the low agricultural yield included. Finance minister Mihai Tanasescu said the Gross Domestic Product would be 2.4% below last fall's estimate in nominal terms. He had announced as early as July that the economic growth pace in the first half had failed expectations, reaching 4.8%. The National Statistics Institute has not provided any GDP trend estimate yet. Foreign analysts are even more bearish, with major investment banks seeing 4.2% to 4.6% as Romania's economic growth in 2003 and 4.6%-4.7% for 2004. Romania's GDP progressed by 4.9% to $46bn last year and might go beyond $52bn in 2003. Romania badly needs its economic growth to maintain at about 5% a year in order to try and close the gap between it and the other EU applicants. ZF
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