The strategy to privatise Petrom or a quiet summer. These are the words that best describe the expectations of the Stock Exchange brokers from the month to come, following two boring weeks on the market.
"We're expecting the Government session on Tuesday. If they make a clear decision about Petrom's privatisation, chances are the shares of the oil company would bring investors back to the BSE. If not, we'll have a more than quiet summer, as I don't see any major moves of other shares over the next few weeks," Adrian Caramiha, BRD Securities trader said.
The Bucharest Stock Exchange on Friday concluded one of its slowest weeks this year, with the daily traded value amounting to even less than $300,000 and with the quotes of the main shares barely fluctuating.
The poor performance registered throughout most of this month did not meet the expectations of many analysts, who were thinking the Romanian Stock Exchange was past that time when the summer months meant investors went on holiday and quotes stood still at best.
The daily traded value has halved during the last two weeks, and the quotes of the major shares - Banca Transilvania, Banca Romana pentru Dezvoltare (Romanian Development Bank - BRD), Petrom, Antibiotice, Terapia and the Financial Investment Companies (SIF) have either frozen or even gone down. The exit of the small and medium-sized investors from the market, which is already a natural occurrence on the Romanian market when the summer holiday season begins, was also accompanied by repeated delays in the endorsement of Petrom's privatisation strategy by the Government.
These delays (the deadline for endorsing the strategy had been set for a month ago) have pushed Petrom's shares down from 1,450 ROL last week to 1,380 ROL at the week's close.
"I hope the decision about the privatisation strategy is made on Tuesday. I don't mean any decision, but the right decision for both Petrom and the small investors on the Stock Exchange. Otherwise I think we'll be looking at two quiet weeks," Octavian Dragolea, European Securities general manager commented.
Dragolea says the quotes might resume their way up in mid August as in the previous years, at which time investors start buying again to benefit from the increases estimated for September and October.
Brokers rely on an increase in Petrom's shares in case the strategy most often mentioned over the last few weeks is endorsed. This strategy stipulates the sale of 33% in the company to a strategic investor, followed by a capital increase by a cash inflow from the investor in question.
"Petrom's net asset per share is at least 1,700 - 1,800 ROL, which means the capital increase will have to be done at a price at least equal to 1,700 ROL/share. There is growth potential to the shares of the oil company," Dragolea says.
Besides Petrom, BSE's most liquid shares last week were Banca Transilvania and BRD. laurentiu.ispir@zf.ro
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