How will the Romanian banking system look in a few years? Apparently, this is a difficult question that can only be answered by a fortune-teller. Still, what we lack now for a complete answer are only the names that will embellish the frontispiece of bank offices, and shareholders' identity. That's all.
Legally, banks will be Romanian and there will be no problem. Sentimentally, many banks are no longer Romanian, and those which still are, for instance, BCR, have their days numbered.
In any case, "our" banks will soon be swallowed by foreign banks struggling for expansion, and globalisation will leave its mark on us, too. Any involvement of French bank Societe Generale in an European merger or acquisition would also bring the Romanian BRD into the deal, if only as an asset in the Societe Generale portfolio.
Perhaps without wanting it, Germany's second largest bank, HypoVereinsbank, will find itself in Bucharest through a potential acquisition of Bank Austria, which already has a branch in Romania. If it decides to keep it, we could hope we are of some interest for Europe's strongest economy, which wasn't the case until now.
Gradually, a good share of the system will acquire the face of the zone it resides in. The Balkans. We live in a place where Greek and Turkish investors share the market and don't lash at each other. They feel in their element - this is the world they nurtured a couple of centuries ago. And the difference is only in technology, which evolved in the meantime. Computers have been invented, and bank transfers are now made by simply pushing a button.
The Greek bank Eurobank is the last one to enter the Romanian market, as the majority shareholder in Banc Post. Still, it bought the 19.25% stake in Banc Post from the Americans, which poses the question why General Electric waived its status of controlling shareholder to be left with just 8.75% of the stock. Although it is an absolutely normal transaction, there is a dose of disappointment, because American shareholder just sounds better than Greek shareholder. But perhaps it's not that bad, since one of the Eurobank shareholders is the strongest German bank. While Deutsche Bank did not come directly to Romania, aside from a representation office, we should be thankful for this indirect form. Eurobank wants to expand widely in the Balkan area, and Banc Post will become a pawn in the network.
The National Bank of Greece, part of the most powerful Greek financial group, is now in a shadow cone in Bucharest, clearly outdone by its counterparts. It is too small here for its real size. For this reason, it has to buy something. The target is BCR, but here the battle will be fierce because whoever takes BCR takes 30% of the Romanian economy.
Turks have been here for centuries and have always done well, even opportunistically, I could say, cashing in on authorities' economic mistakes. Now, Turkish investors must extend, which is going to be harder.
On the other hand, at a different, more European level, only Societe Generale had the courage to enter the market. The other banks, components of the European financial groups ING, ABN Amro, Bank Austria and Reiffeissen, focused largely on companies, most of them Romanian, or on a handful of businesses, which are good, because otherwise they would have left immediately, as was the case of BNP-Dresdner Bank, which withdrew after only one year for lack of business.
The Americans from Citibank seem an exception on the local market, for the simple fact that they are Americans, and there aren't too many of those.
Gradually, Romanian shareholders will vanish, because no one has the money or experience to support banks. The Albina, Bankcoop, BIR and Unirea cases are very eloquent. Perhaps Financial Investment Companies will remain the only major shareholders, but without any merit of their own. On rare occasions there will be a banking company boasting Romanian names and local shareholders across its ownership spectrum.
The notion of national bank, national interest, which does befit a speech, will exist only by its name. It will no longer matter who owns the bank. People, customers, will judge only by the quality of service and personal interest. Money is the same everywhere.
And regardless of who owns the bank, business has to run well in our country, the Romanian economy has to credit it, Romanian customers will be the ones to support it, because this is the place where a bank makes its profit. Or loss.
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