(story to be published in tomorrow's issue, March 27)
Since no one seems doubtful about the outcome of Russian presidential elections, everyone has another problem: who is Vladimir Putin and what will he make of the world's formerly great power? A character that few had heard of before Boris Yeltsin pulled him onto the political stage for a Prime Minister position, Putin enjoyed a rapid and surprising ascent that brought him to the Kremlin in less than half a year. His popularity owes to his clear-cut attitude towards politics, especially in the military offensive in Chechnya, where military success so far has practically secured his victory in the presidential vote. "He is the one who will be able to unite around himself those who will revive the Great Russia in the new 21st century," Yeltsin said when the director of the Federal Security Service, successor to the feared KGB, stepped in as head of the Moscow government. The world had and still has no clue as to what to expect from this former KGB spy, a job where pretence and lie are regarded as second nature. Putin has often declared himself a supporter of economic reforms, but it was also him who spoke about a stronger state authority and instating a dictatorship of the law. His electoral campaign lacked a clear economic and social programme. In Putin's own words, he had no time for debates, but a country to run. He spoke of rebuilding the Russian army, seriously affected by the first Chechen war, and by the scarce funding, but did not forget to mention that Moscow does not want to see another Iron Curtain in Europe. His entire political activity so far has been full of contradictions. Putin has refused to take a clear stand in the major problems facing Russia, which has helped him keep potential voters on his side. Because of his past as a spy, many fear that once in power, he will turn into an authoritarian leader who will not have second thoughts about resorting to force to attain his goals. The Western leaders he has met so far have been cautious in statements, although they appreciated his vigour and openness. But there are voices in the West who fear he could drive Russia toward a new dictatorship. An American analyst even asked rhetorically whether Putin would become for Russia another Pinochet or Milosevic, but the acting Russian President has said he is an admirer of the "Iron Lady," Margaret Thatcher. One positive aspect is that he has been a close collaborator of one of Russia's most known reformers, Anatoly Sobchak, mayor of Saint Petersburg. And he was introduced to the Kremlin by the architect of Russian economic reforms, Anatoly Chubais. Regardless of the outcome, Putin will have to fight serious problems - organised crime, corruption going to the highest places, and a torn-down economy that operates more on the account of international financial aid. The very need for Western aid may be what will keep Putin on the path of reforms. In any event, his image as a man of determination and action (last week, he flew into Chechnya aboard a jet fighter) are in dire contrast with Boris Yeltsin's deplorable performance in the latest years, which has only added to Putin's popularity. Because the Russians still need a "father" to look after them.
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