Romania's biggest company says the (technical) inspection of Arpechim and the shrinking refining margins are hurting its results.
Petrom expects to derive net income worth 497 million euros this year, down 24% from 2006, and turnover of 3.1 billion euros, 16% lower than the figure the company reported last year. Turnover mentioned in the company's 2007 budget does not include excises.
The estimates are included in the company's Spending and Revenue Budget for 2007, a document that is to be submitted to the company's shareholders for approval during the general meeting of shareholders scheduled for April 17.
"Elements that will have a significant impact over the 2007 net income include, on the one hand, the business environment and, on the other hand, the refining margin and the (technical) inspection of Arpechim, scheduled for April. We believe oil prices are going to be slightly lower in 2007 than in 2006, but their level will still be high," stated the company's representatives. Despite the lower projections, stock market analysts expect Petrom to repeat last year's performance, when it registered results above the initial estimates.
"I wasn't expecting such low estimates compared with last year's results. They probably took into account the average price per oil barrel in Q1, which was lower than in the first quarter of last year, as the company usually does when calculating its budget. I still believe oil prices will rise and Petrom will manage once again to go beyond its budgeted levels, as it did last year," stated Adrian Danciu, an analyst with Broker Cluj.
"In terms of turnover, the company will hit at least the level of 2006. Referring to net profit, this will largely depend on expenses related to the investments the company will operate. However, I expect the profit rate to be lower than in 2006," added Danciu.
Petrom's budget is viewed by brokers as being a "not highly negative" forecast.
"Considering the objective factors by which Petrom management accounted for the lower estimates and the fact that the profitability rate stays at a very good level, Petrom's budget is neither an upbeat, nor a very negative forecast," considers Razvan Pasol, chairman with Intercapital Invest brokerage.
Last year, Petrom derived higher-than-expected results, reporting income worth 647 million euros, up 61% year-on-year, and turnover worth 3.7 billion euros, 21% higher than in 2005. The main growth driver was the rising international quotes of oil products.
According to the company's 2007 budget, overall investments will reach 1.1 billion euros, with the largest part of the funds to go to the exploration and production segment, to take in 494 million euros. The company will earmark around 446 million euros for the refining and marketing unit, while the gas unit will receive 44 million euros.
Petrom's budget
Forecasts net income worth 497m euros this year, down 24% against 2006, amid turnover worth 3.1bn euros, 16% lower than last year
Elements expected to hurt the company's results include the business environment and the refining margin and Arpechim's technical inspection scheduled for April
Analysts consider the budget not to be a highly negative forecast is, expecting Petrom to repeat last year's performance, when it exceeded its initial estimates
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