On Friday, April 30, 2004, more than 70 million people will go to sleep as Baltic citizens or Central and East Europeans, but on Saturday, May 1, they will all wake up in the European Union. This is the most obvious effect of the biggest change on Europe's political and economic map since the fall of the communist regimes. The move was endorsed in December 2002 in Copenhagen and will enter effect in May 2004, once Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta join the European Union, which now counts 15 member states.
Also on Saturday, May 1, the clock in Piata Universitatii (University Plaza, Bucharest) will inform the passersby that 975 days are left until January 1, 2007, when the local authorities hope that Romania can join the EU.
A lot has and will be written about the effects of European Union integration upon the ten new members, but also upon Romania. However, it was Tomo Cuk, country manager for Romania of the Slovenian drugmaker Lek that probably put it best: "... we have reached the conclusion that integration will yield no negative effects upon our businesses in those countries that are part of the first or second wave of EU accession. However, things are not very clear: this is more like a 'Let's jump and then we will see where we've landed' type of situation." And the European press is talking about a Big Bang that has its upsides and downsides for each party: a 20% increase of the European population, but a mere 5% growth of the European Gross Domestic Product.
For Romania, which is only just beginning to prepare for the big moment, May 1 is the day when certain reference points are to change: the Western boarders will move closer to Bucharest (only 400 kilometres away from the Capital), a move that will translate into increasing foreign investment, a change in the trade deficit with the EU, but also in the outsourcing sector, which has greatly supported Romania's economic ties with many countries. Specialists believe that Romania's nearness to the European Union will trigger the demise of some of the Romanian energy producers, as the European producers, which are both price competitive and efficient, will oust the Romanian companies that still have huge production costs. More optimistic, the officials of the agricultural and food industry are eagerly waiting for the EU accession of the ten states, which will thus switch from the customs duties applied to CEFTA members to those levied on EU member states. Also, May 1 will bring the cancellation of certain subsidies for the exports of products to Romania.
Romania's private sector must see May 1 as the beginning of the final countdown to a major change, different from the political change: adjustment to the European market, with its rigours and rules. Someone has recently said that most of the Romanian companies are living in an "euro-optimism stemming from euro-ignorance" and that they should learn to adapt to the European legislation, which is both complex and difficult.
European Union accession, both for the ten new members and for Romania, is a moment comparable to the fall of the Iron Curtain. But from now on, it is up to every country's wisdom and ability to secure a place for itself into the new Europe.
dorin.oancea@zf.ro
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