Analysts anticipate ECB's decision to raise its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4.25% per annum will drive financing costs up, at least by a similar amount, but the time and scope of adjustments will depend on each bank.
"Naturally, we'll see an interest rate increase soon, given that the euro loan costs are also under the pressure of rising financing margins compared to last year, due to a higher risk premium associated with Romania," considers Ionut Dumitru, research manager with Raiffeisen Bank.
He explains that in the case of loans for companies, adjustment comes automatically as the interest rate is usually variable, tied to Euribor. Referring to retail loans, Dumitru says each bank will decide the adjustment moment and size.
Georgiana Constantinescu, an analyst with Credit Europe Bank, explains we could see lending interest rate adjustments by at least 0.25% as the interest hike will generate similar moves of inter-bank market interest rates.
As regards the rate of banking liabilities, Constantinescu says we may witness significant adjustments at this level, too, depending on each banking player's financing means.
Dan Bucsa, research manager of Bancpost, believes, though, the 0.25% move will not change anything for the time being, showing that the interest rates of loans granted and of attracted deposits have not moved considerably in the past months as market competition remains strong.
He shows that in the following months the RON exchange rate will be particularly influenced by investors' outlook on the imbalances hurting the Romanian economy.
On the market, ECB's decision is generating downbeat expectations. A price increase is expected on the real estate market, as developers will transfer the higher financing costs onto customers.
"Loans will be more expensive for us real estate investors, too, but the higher costs will be largely transferred to the prices of flats and rents," says Reuven Havar, CEO of Africa Israel developer.
The car market is also concerned.
"The increase in the ECB rate will surely affect sales of cars in Romania, which are largely paid with loans or leased. After the petroleum price hike this is the second blow dealt to the automotive industry," said Constantin Stroe, vice-president of Automobile Dacia, the largest Romanian carmaker.
Overdue sums related to population's loans in late April totalled almost 691m RON (around 188m euros), 81% above the level registered in the similar period of last year. During this period, loans contracted by the population rose 82% to 81.7bn RON (22.2bn euros).
NBR governor Mugur Isarescu warned the growth pace of foreign currency loans to the population was unsustainable.
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