The RON could experience problems again at the beginning of thisyear, as it did in 2008 and 2009, when the first two months camewith quite an abrupt depreciation of the exchange rate.
Throughout 2009 the movements on the forex market were strictlysupervised by the central bank, which did not think twice beforeintervening to temper those trends it regarded as excessive.Therefore, the question now is whether the NBR tolerates a newdepreciation of the RON at the beginning of the year or not.
"We believe the NBR will continue to intervene on the market tocontain a potential depreciation of the RON. A 4.5-RON euro seemsbearable for the economy so that if the market reaches this level,the NBR might accept it," says Catalina Molnar, chief economist ofRBS Bank Romania. She adds that the euro would thus gain anadditional 4.5% against the 4.3 RON peak reached last year. "Such adepreciation is not excessive," she says. RBS forecasts the eurowill reach 4.36 RON in March. On the average, the euro exchangerate will go up to 4.27 RON in 2010, 1% higher than the 2009average of 4.24 RON.
The analysts of Erste Bank, the majority shareholder of BCR,believe the euro will stagnate at the current levels until thespring, anticipating a 4.23 RON/EUR exchange rate in March. Also inVienna, Raiffeisen Bank's analysts see the euro going up to 4.3 RONin March.
Both Erste and Raiffeisen, however, anticipate the RON willstrengthen in the second half of the year. Therefore the euroshould go down to 4.2 RON in June and 4.1 RON in September, Ersteanalysts believe. Raiffeisen sees the euro five bani (100 bani - 1RON) higher, that is 4.25 RON in June, with the exchange rate setto go down to 4.15 RON/EUR by December.
Central bank Governor Mugur Isarescu, however, in Decemberreiterated the message he had sent the markets last spring, thatthe depreciation of the exchange rate to 4.3 RON/EUR was enough forthe economy to adjust.
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