Analysts: IMF arrangement could fail in autumn

A new IMF mission arrives today in Bucharest and until 7th of May it will assess Romania's fulfilment of criteria in the first quarter of the year. The next tranche, of 850 million euros, could most likely to be released in the second half of June.
The arrangement with the IMF could fail in early autumn because the delayed economic rebound will make it even less likely that the Government will commit to unpopular cost cutting measures, say analysts, although the current assessment will end in the release of a new tranche.
"We maintain our view that the fourth review, which is scheduled for IMF board discussion in mid-June, is likely to be completed successfully. Looking ahead, we believe that the potential problems regarding programme implementation are unlikely to emerge before September at the time of the fifth review," reads a report of American bank Citibank.
The bleak growth prospects will make it politically less palatable for the government to stick to the target or take contingency measures if needed, Citi analysts say.