Economy will look better only in statistics

Salaries will rise by less than the inflation rate this year, and lending will not be resumed very easily due to the lack of demand, believes Lucian Anghel, chief economist of the BCR.
"Statistically we will do better than in 2010, but for ordinary people this year will be as difficult as 2009. The economy could grow by 1-2%, mainly thanks to the positive contribution of industry whose increase will be influenced by external demand," said Anghel. Agriculture will also have a positive contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), whilst the construction sector will be a negative factor, he added.
BCR analysts expect salaries to rise by around 3%, which means a decline in real terms, considering that inflation is expected to be at least one percentage point above 3%. Only as of 2011 could salaries return to positive territory, as the income growth rate could match inflation. This year there is a big chance that the central bank will hit its inflation target, says the chief economist, who expects a 4% rise in consumer prices in December against the end of 2009.